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Gold Analysis 23.07.2019

Gold futures fell during the Asian session to see their rebound for the third consecutive session of its highest since May 10, 2013 amid the rise of the dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Tuesday by the US economy largest economy The world is looking forward to the developments of trade negotiations between the United States and China and the developments of the Middle East.

Gold futures for August delivery fell 0.52% to currently trade at $ 1,418.60 per ounce from the opening at $ 1,426.00 per ounce. The dollar index rose 0.08% to 97.39 compared to the opening at 97.32.

US investors are eyeing the Home Price Index (CPI), which may reflect slowing growth to 0.3% versus 0.4% in April, before we see the Existing Home Sales Index, which may show a 2.5% rise to 5.35 million homes versus a drop 0.1% at 5.34 million homes in May, and in conjunction with the Richmond Industrial Index reading, which may extend to 5 to 3 in June.

Other than that, we followed the remarks of US President Donald Trump earlier this week that he was working with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jingping to reach a trade agreement between the United States and China and that work to solve the crisis of the Chinese company Huawei exists, That it is difficult to reach an agreement with Iran and that his administration is following closely the current situation with Iran.

US President Trump recently allowed US Republican Senator Randall Paul to negotiate with Iran to calm tensions in the Gulf. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Monday that his country did not want to go to war with Iran, Paying full attention to its own oil vessels and protecting its vessels.

This came in tandem with the escalation of tensions between Iran and the United Kingdom against the backdrop of the detention of Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces to two British oil vessels in the Straits of Hormuz last week and the release of one while the other was detained amid the assessment of observers that this is a response to the Kingdom's detention of an Iranian ship in the Strait of Gibraltar recently , British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt also expressed yesterday that his country is committed to the nuclear agreement with Iran.

British Foreign Secretary Hunt called on Britain's British flag vessels to give notice of the intention to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to provide protection. British forces can not accompany all British ships. If Iran continues this dangerous approach, the kingdom will have to accept the price. There will be a greater military presence in the waters of the Gulf

In another context, last Friday we followed FOMC Chairman and New York Bank Chairman John Williams to his recent remarks, saying that his latest speech was not about possible monetary policy

measures at the next meeting of the Commission, which dampened market speculation that the interest rate cut On federal funds by 50 basis points by the end of this month.

In the same vein, we also followed Friday the Wall Street Journal's view that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at the July 30-31 meeting by only 25 basis points, and that the monetary policy makers of the Federal Commission may make further cuts in the future depending on Growing uncertainty about global growth and global trade.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold starts today negatively to press the bullish trend line, and we expect the most important support test 1410.90 before resuming to resume the bullish trend again.

So far, the overall positive scenario remains valid with stability above the support mentioned above, as breaking it will push the price to start a downside correctional wave with its first major target at 1385.00, while the expected bullish wave targets start at 1450.00 and extend to 1500.00.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1405.00 and resistance at 1440.00

The general trend for today is bullish.


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